I’d like to start this post off by pointing out how cool and clever I am after predicting the most recent bannings for the pioneer format. Almost every deck in the top 16’s of the ptq’s from last week contained the offending cards I mentioned in my previous metagame review. When a new format is that uniform and only ~3 actual decks are viable it’s time to make some changes.
Normally ptq’s will happen at disparate locations all over single weekends. In this case there was an online ptq every day of the week. As a result players could react between events with the publicly posted results from the previous event. This resulted in a month or more worth of metagame movement happening in a week. Mostly players just reacted by playing more dark betrayal; which seems pretty indicative of how things were going. I’m honesty surprised they pulled the trigger on all of the bannings at once. I expected them to perform the necessary smuggler’s copter ban, followed by field of the dead ban a week later, followed by once upon a time shortly thereafter. Clearly they knew what was up and took the necessary steps to remove the noxious play patterns that were haunting the format. Good job Wizards.
So what does this mean now? No idea! But we can guess pretty well, as there were technically a few decks that weren’t running any of the previous holy trinity. Also there are a few busted cards that can be identified as likely to run the room now that the specters of yesterweek allow cool things to exist again. Let me start with a traditional update to the metagame diagram.
Each of these cards is truly messed up, some moreso than others, and pretty much represent the best cards remaining in the format. Note however, a single messed up card does not a deck make. The support for many of these has whittled away with the most recent banning. Once upon a time in particular propped up a number of strategies (mostly llanowar elf based) that have lost a substantial amount of consistency with the most recent bannings. Let’s discuss the highlighted archetypes from my diagram individually.
Oko is still messed up. Really messed up. He will almost certainly get himself banned, but not before the elken plague runs its course. The abundance of mana dorks that result in him coming down on turn 2 also doesn’t help with this. The thing about Oko is that there is no downside; he’s never a dead card. He’s main-deck life-gain against aggro, bodies against midrange, a sticky threat against control, and a clock against combo and big mana. I expect oko to show up in every deck in his colors, as well as splashes for him in most midrange decks. Not unlike standard, I expect food deck variations to take over the midrange corner, mostly on the strength of making themselves the “best oko deck.” Because if you have oko, why not goose? and if goose and oko? why not wolf?
If control exists it will likely be leaning on verdict as a way to get around the abundance of negate effects running around from all of the oko lists. Verdict’s biggest nemesis, da choppa, has also left the format, making the card even more powerful. I’m not sold that the control can stand up to the elkpocalypse, but maybe slightly bigger oko control lists start running the tables.
Nykthos is definitely the most messed up mana source remaining in pioneer, but I’m not sure it’s quite busted enough give itself a ban-hammer. Nykthos requires having colored cards on board which currently get destroyed by the best big mana payoff in the format Ugin, the spirit dragon. The dis-synergy between the best big mana enabler and payoff mean that there is no obvious/best direction to go for big mana. Which is better will develop in time, but the deck building isn’t as easy as the previous motto “put hour of promise and field of the dead in any deck and win the late game.” In the meantime, the above list seems like a very good place to start jamming Ugin’s as quickly as possible. I think Ugin represents the best over the top threat now that field of the dead is gone. Of course, Ulamog, the ceaseless hunger is also pretty insane, and once the combination of elvish mystic and Nykthos transform into a voltron of near infinite mana, I’m sure ramp players will find a cool payoff to go with it.
The previous pioneer format was the format of abusing your mana. I believe the current format is the format of abusing your planeswalkers. I’ve already spent most of the article gushing about oko, but I also believe that Teferi, time raveler and Ugin, the spirit dragon have a role to play in annoying us all.
Prove me wrong. The format is wide open and there’s still time to fight back the elken scourge. Maybe I’m even wrong and Oko ends up not being a big deal. Bring your goblin tokens, bring your white weenies, get your Ugin’s, run with scissors? Let’s keep pioneer fun!