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The Medium Guide to Big Magic Tournaments (part 2)

This is part two of a multiple article series. The first article covered gameplay improvements and suggestions. This part covers some meta decisions about how to do well at tournaments. Part three will cover logistical suggestions.

Plan to beat the winner’s metagame

Sometimes is feels really bad when you sit down at a legacy tournament and lose to burn repeatedly (your fault for not having win conditions). However, being soft to a deck that is unlikely to perform well is better than being an all-rounder against bad decks. Tobi Henke covered this very well in a recent article, but I think it bears repeating.

The winner’s metagame are the decks that you think are most likely to compose the top tables. These are the decks you want to beat, not the junk that sometimes populates the early rounds of a tournament. This is one of the benefits of having byes at a GP (byes just barely still exist as of this writing). Getting to skip lesser known or lower likelihood of success decks can inform deck decisions and allow you to skip worrying about bad decks. If all the good decks are on 3-4c Energy midrange in Kaladesh standard, you better have a good plan for beating them. Play to win the tournament, don’t put narrow cards in your board to beat the 1% of the field deck that dumpsters you. When you build a sideboard, keep in mind what you are expecting to face in the winners meta and make sure you have a focused plan against them. Don’t devote 10 cards to beating the standard burn matchup, no matter how much you hate losing to it, when burn is 2% of the meta.

This is critically important for a format like modern, especially for those who are new to the format. The tendency is to put very specific answers into their sideboard to deal with their local meta. If you are playing burn and hate infect, play Searing Blood, not Burn the Impure. Searing blood is just as effective against infect in most situations, but is also useful against creature combo decks and other random nonsense you might encounter.

Option a is better than option b, no matter how much you hate infect.

Sometimes one deck is likely to be the most represented deck (*cough* Hogaak *cough*) in the format and it is necessary to devote specific sideboard cards (Leyline of the Void) to beating this strategy. Most of the time in modern it pays to have answers that can be used more widely like Relic of Progenitus, but there are always exceptions. Damping Sphere covers more bases than Molten Rain, etc. There are many articles discussing sideboarding, especially in modern, but I think it is always worth rehashing.

In older formats part of playing to the winner’s meta is also ignoring that some players just “want it more.” Sometimes you’re playing rb reanimator and your round 2 opponent has 10 pieces of yard hate. You should still play reanimator if you think it is the best deck. Some people hate losing to a specific deck and will over-prepare for it. These people will likely feel the burn later in the tournament when they don’t have cards to bring in against other decks. Sometimes you run into them, they have it all, and there’s not much to be done.

If you can, perform focused testing

Jamming modern modo games might be ok for getting the hang of your deck, but at a certain point you need to sit down and focus on the winner’s metagame. I am fortunate enough to have a network of friends who between us can proxy up and test important matchups. Fun fact: you will never get enough reps in with a deck to know for sure the matchup percentages. I would go so far as to say you will never get enough reps with a deck.

Period.

Ever.

Welcome to magic.

Maybe I’m just neurotic. I have certainly never gone into a tournament feeling like I couldn’t have prepared more. There might be people that feel like they have spent enough time on their deck and testing. These people are either very wrong, or have a great deal more time than I do. Point being, we’re going to have to be efficient.

10 game sets with alternating first players can give you a very good feel for what is going on and what is important. The streamer Jeff Hoogland is very good at talking about this. At the end of videos he often loudly proclaims that we ignore the record and focus on how things felt. Mixed feelings around the net regarding Mr. Hoogland notwithstanding, I think that this self- analysis is very important while testing and tuning decks. There is a reason that computers are very bad at magic. I perform my serious testing with individuals (preferably ones who know the deck they are piloting well) and in longer sets. I prefer this be done in paper magic, but an online tool might be faster or easier for some depending on format and individual taste.

Test matchups! Leagues are ok testing but not the best.

Play good decks

I love bad combo decks (Narset cannon and meandeck tendrils are particular favorites). I play them often at weekly tournaments so that I get it out of my system and don’t play bad decks at big events. The fact that neo-griselbrand straddles this line in modern could lead to significant shenanigans down the road and is amusing to me.

There are many reasons people play bad decks. Comfort, the lolz, the burning need to show how cool you are (Antony Benedetti is particularly cool). The fact is that there is a hive mind of magic online players that are actively trying their darndest to break the game and get all the moneys. The result is that the creme of the crop tend to rise up after they’ve been discovered.

Tangent: The “after they’ve been discovered” bit is important here. I’m of the opinion that the modo hive mind acts similarly to machine learning. As Hari Seldon might say, humans in groups are easy to predict. Everyone tries everything over enough time (infinite monkeys, infinite typewriters, etc.) and as a result the best decks tend to be the most played decks over time. I recommend looking into basic machine learning/neural net stuff (cool mario link here). I’ll probably devote an entire article to this some time in the future. The thing about taking a lot of inputs (players and decks) and jamming them into a few metrics for success (published lists), is that they will tend to wander off into local maxima. That is, the meta-magician is very good at tuning decks, and not so good at discovering them. This goes along with Patrick Chapin’s information cascades article. We humans tend to follow, not invent.

Anyway, modo is a very good deck-tuning machine and a so-so deck-finding machine. I am willing to bet that there are a very large number of very good decks out there that haven’t been discovered yet. Recall how the best versions of death’s shadow weren’t even discovered until gitaxian probe was banned. The problem is that you are incredibly unlikely to find and tune one of these mythical hidden best decks. If Matt Nass were given an infinite amount of time to test older formats I’m sure he could develop an entirely different ecosystem of insane combo decks that would be stronger than our current meta (I like to call this the infinite Nasty theorem).

Most of us aren’t Matt Nass or Patrick Chapin and we don’t have infinite time. We also largely don’t have massive pro teams bolstering our every whim. The result is that we need a good deck to play and we probably don’t have much time. Don’t play bad decks. Play meta decks and try to learn them and tune them in the time you have. You don’t always have to play the Gaak, but play something that already exists and has a reasonable plan against it. Play brainstorm in Legacy, play linear in modern, and play midrange (probably) in standard.

Your brew is bad. Keep tuning it, play it at weeklies and have fun. Maybe at some point it will be less bad. If your goal is to maximize win percentages, play a meta deck.

Always have a sideboard guide

It is important to know how you plan to sideboard, this ensures that your sideboard makes sense and that your outs and ins map correctly. For me, the hardest part is deciding which things need to come out of my deck. Especially for dedicated combo decks, it is very hard to determine how much of the deck you can remove before it ceases to function correctly. My first step is usually to find someone else’s guide, because developing my own takes many hours of additional time that I often do not have. If you are lucky enough to know an experienced pilot, talking through their plans is always better than a stale guide that can be found online. A sideboard guide as a tool helps determine how many cards are needed for a matchup while still understanding what the plan is against certain decks.

The hardest decks for me are midrange decks (especially in standard). Plans for midrange decks usually are not obvious because you are altering your deck to perform a specific role. Midrange mirrors especially can be particularly nuanced. During the reign of mardu vehicles, for example, each mardu deck was trying to go over the top of the others, but some of the threats were so hard to deal with (scrapheap scrounger) that going under one another was a completely viable option, especially on the play. No two players agreed on sideboarding choices and trying to anticipate what role the other person was taking could be critical for victory.

In limited, while you may not have a specific plan, you should have a general idea what the weakest cards in your deck are as well as your strongest sideboard options. In extreme cases, especially in sealed, it is correct to have a whole other deck sleeved up and ready to swap out. The tendency for many players is to not bother with boarding too much in limited, but this leaves a lot of percentage points on the table. In limited, every deck is a midrange deck and you should be adjusting your role according to how it matches up to other midrange decks. Know your role and have a plan. You don’t even have to write down the plan in limited, just try not to forget that you have disenchants in your pool. I find that having it written down helps me know what I think I should be doing and makes it easier for me to improvise in the actual tournament itself.

There are many articles that are against sideboard guides. These all make excellent points. Someone else’s guide implemented without any thought is probably out of date and does not account for changes. Using guides as rote also keeps you from making important changes on the fly that are often needed for slight variations in decks. The important part is to start with a guide for structure and to aide in understanding. From there it is important to move forward from the guide as you make changes and updates, and be willing to mix things up on the fly depending on how your opponents might differ from the norm.

For me, guides are a very important jumping off point for understanding a deck quickly and a great tool for not having to always remember my own sideboard plan. They give structure to help aide in understanding.

Don’t hand out free information

A magic player’s second main hobby is complaining about magic. Have you ever had an opponent come to the round complaining about their last match and basically tell you what they’re playing? I don’t recommend doing that. Having a conversation with your opponent is part of the fun of the magic tournament experience. Loudly proclaiming bad beat stories to strangers is not the best way to make friends and can lead to accidentally giving away information. It is also obnoxious. Also, be mindful of how you hold your cards. As a taller player I can sometimes see some of my opponents’ cards. When I can see my opponents’ cards I try to inform them immediately, but it is still up to them to hold cards in a way that I can’t see them. Sloppy shuffling also tends to reveal cards unnecessarily. Watch how you shuffle, maybe have a friend give you an outside opinion. In team tournaments it can be very easy for the other team to see cards in your deck while you shuffle; make sure to shuffle away from opponents.

Try to use a card case that doesn’t flash the world every time you take your cards out. The clear cases, or the ones that open from the top are the worst offenders. I like having flaps and other things that I can hide cards behind as I take things out. This also is helpful for sideboarding behind your case to keep the number of cards going in and out secret.

Try to keep composed while drawing cards. If you can, know what cards you could draw and what you would do with them if you do. Basically, don’t just slump in the chair every time you draw a land, and jump out of the chair every time you draw a bomb. You don’t have to perfectly control your tells, but being mindful of what you’re doing is useful, especially if you can turn some of your body language into a bluff.

Have a plan to win

LSV is very good about this and talks about it in depth, so I won’t go over it too much. This is especially relevant when way behind in a game. As you are being cut out of outs and things are looking very grim, take a minute to think of what needs to happen in order to win. If you need the top of your deck to be precisely lightning bolt, play in a way such that it is true. If you need your opponent to brick, and you need runner-runner pump spells to kill with your infect creature before they kill you, make sure that you are set up so that those pump spells are most likely to kill. If you are way ahead and can only lose to a haste creature in limited, keep a blocker back to not lose if it doesn’t affect your clock. In short, don’t play cards at random, especially when way ahead or way behind, visualize what it takes to win and play towards that end.

Thus ends additional ramblings. The Isaac Asimov reference was my favorite one probably.

On a fun note. I just won the MCQ for Richmond for the bay area (northern CA) playing the Gaak. Turns out that deck is busted, who knew? I hope those that were in Vegas had fun and maybe played the gaak for the last time.

Am I a dumb jerkface who doesn’t know anything? Comment below, I welcome your hate. I welcome your love and questions even more, also please put those below. See you next time.

MADMAN, GENIUS OR BOTH? CHAPTER TWO: EIGHT BALL TO THE FACE

Welcome to another installment of Madman, Genius, or Both? This week’s focus is on another Modern deck that I came across about a month ago when I was researching my previous Nexus of Fate article. If you’re looking to play a Nexus of Fate deck in Modern, check out my previous article. If you’d rather smash people in the face repeatedly with hasty 6/1 creatures – well, I’ve got the deck for you.

This is the first iteration I came across, which was posted on July 16, 2019 as a 5-0 list from a Modern League. If the deck had been around before then, I was unaware of it.

“Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” – Mike Tyson

I still remember the first time I lost to Ball Lightning as a kid. Even then it felt like a perfect, identity defining card for red (and still does). This was at a time when all I wanted to do was save up my allowance to buy the lone copy of a Revised Force of Nature at the local game store (which I ultimately did do).

Nostalgia aside, what does this deck do? Well, as I mentioned above (and Mike Tyson clarified), you punch your opponent in the mouth repeatedly with 6/1 trampling creatures until the game ends. Don’t believe me, check out the core of what makes this deck filthy:

Yep. Like most Modern decks that play red cards and win games of magic, we’ve got the full four copies of Faithless Looting. This is the most important card to have in your opening hand and the deck’s most powerful turn one play. This version runs the additional full suite of both Thoughtseize and Inquisition of KoziIek, giving the deck twelve turn one discard outlets if you take the all-in approach. What is that approach, you ask? Well, if you are lucky enough to have the option of playing your best and most important creature in Thunderkin Awakener on turn two, it will often be correct on turn one to Thoughtseize or Inquisition of Kozilek yourself to get a Lightning Skelemental or Ball Lightning into the graveyard. On turn two you can play Thunderkin Awakener, attack, and hopefully throw a 6 damage Blightning at your opponents face. The next turn you do the same thing. If they Lightning Bolt, Fatal Push or otherwise kill your Thunderkin Awakener, not to worry.

Just go ahead and cast Unearth on your Thunderkin Awakener, attack, and go back to throwing those six damage haymakers at your opponent.

With four Lightning Bolt and three Dreadhorde Arcanist to re-cast said lightning bolts, the deck has some reach to finish games off if you can land a couple of early six damage bursts. As additional removal, the deck also runs two copies of Fatal Push and a single copy of Kolaghan’s Command. The Dreadhorde Arcanist can also be used to Unearth the Thunderkin Awakener for the second or third time as needed, though this is less efficient because you can’t attack with Arcanist, cast Unearth, and attack with Awakener on the same turn.

Last, for some later game value creatures, this version runs two Seasoned Pyromancer and one Young Pyromancer just in case your Lightning Bolts aren’t enough to finish the game.

More recently, Caleb Durward took a slightly modified version of the deck to a 5-0 finish in a Modern League posted on July 30, 2019. Then, on August 10, 2019, MTGO player LORDOFTHELOBSTERS took Caleb’s identical seventy-five for a spin into tenth place in a Modern Challenge:

This version cuts one Dreadhorde Arcanist, one Kolaghan’s Command, one Young Pyromancer, and one each of Thoughtseize and Inquisition of Kozilek. In exchange, we see the third and fourth copies of Seasoned Pyromancer, the third Fatal Push, a Collective Brutality, and a Dreadbore.

These changes seems solid. Kolaghan’s Command feels like a worse, more expensive Unearth that doesn’t put Thunderkin Awakener directly into play. Meanwhile, Collective Brutality seems great because you’re only down one net discard effect, and you get some added utility all in one card. The ability to discard excess lands and/or dig for needed resources also sounds great with regard to the third and fourth copies of Seasoned Pyromancer.

The manabase is also upgraded. Caleb has cut the third Blood Crypt and two Mountains in exchange for a Cavern of Souls, a Fiery Islet, and the eighth fetch land. The takeaway here is that the original version had eighteen red mana sources and fifteen black sources, while Caleb’s paired down to seventeen red mana sources and fifteen black sources. He traded one red mana source for some modest flood insurance and a way to cast un-counterable creatures. Look, if we’re being greedy, let’s just commit to it.

DECK GRADE: MADMAN

While I like the changes to the deck and would recommend Caleb’s version if you want to give it a whirl, the fact that Dreadhorde Arcanist re-casting Unearth doesn’t allow you to attack with Thunderkin Awakener the same turn is something of a nonbo. This feels like the kind of deck where you’ll sometimes have to save up a bunch of resources and go all-in on a single turn to finish off your opponent. In that situation, Arcanist isn’t the redundant Unearth effect you need it to be.

That said, the larger issue here is that if you don’t draw Thunderkin Awakener, or if it gets exiled with something like Path to Exile, your plan kind of falls apart. Also, this deck feels extremely weak to graveyard hate, including Leyline of the Void, which is pretty popular right now in the current Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis era. Speaking of which, an 8/8 creature is pretty good at blocking 6/1s.

To be fair, this deck can kill on turn three with the right draw, which is fast enough to be competitive in Modern. This can happen in a few different ways. The first is where you cast Faithless Looting on turn one and discard two 6/1s. Then you untap, play the first Thunderkin Awakener on turn two, and attack for seven. If your opponent has 1 toughness or less to absorb damage, you can cast a second Thunderkin Awakener on turn three and bash for another 14 damage. If instead of Faithless Looting on turn one you have two one mana discard spells – this plan also works. You will still need two 6/1 creatures by turn three as well as two Thunderkin Awakeners. Alternatively, this deck can win with exactly lethal on turn three if you have double Lightning Bolt to close out the game after up bashing for 7 on your second and third turns.

Thanks for reading and I hope you enjoyed the article! If you have any suggestions for decks you would like me to discuss, please let me know in the comments!

MADMAN, GENIUS, OR BOTH? CHAPTER ONE: NEXUS OF HATE

Introducing my new article series Madman, Genius or Both?, where I shine a spotlight on a deck list that I find interesting and attempt to solve the ultimate question of whether the deck creator is a madman, genius, or both. As the title implies, the first deck I’ll be talking about includes the much hated card, Nexus of Fate.

I started writing this article back in June, before we had a firm launch date for manatutors. At that time, I spotted a deck by FTZZ, who posted a 29^thplace finish in a Modern Challenge from May 18, then another 5-0 result with the identical decklist on May 31, 2019. Here is that list:

I LOVE THIS DECK, BUT I NEVER WANT TO PLAY AGAINST IT.

I plan to try out the deck on Magic Online at some point and write a follow up piece, but it should be noted up front that I have played exactly zero games with the deck.

That said, it has the core of every blue deck I’ve ever sat down to build in Modern: 4 Cryptic Command and 4 Remand . Most decks I’ve tried to build are some version of Blue control and they never seem to be able to fit the full 8 copies, but FTZZ has found a formula that seems at least functional. In fact, this deck not only fits them, but it feels like it leans pretty heavily on both the Cryptic Commands and Remands just to stay alive long enough to win the game.

Next, you show me a deck in Modern that can actually make use of Mystical Teachings and you’ve already won me over. I love me some Mystical Teachings. I’ve tried to make them work in Modern, but as a grindy value card in Esper or Grixis it has never been good enough.

Enter the Wilderness Reclamation/Nexus of Fate combo.

Wilderness Reclamation takes Mystical Teachings and makes it playable. A worse version of a one-sided Mana Flare, Wilderness Reclamation untaps all of your lands at the beginning of your end step, thereby effectively doubling your access to mana for each copy of Wilderness Reclamation in play. This allows you to cast expensive instants like Nexus of Fate at the end of your turn as early as turn 4.

Other than lands, there are only three cards in the deck that you want to cast during your main phase and they are all Wilderness Reclamations. In the early game, the deck simply wants to hold up remand mana and then cast growth spirals and opts on the opponents end step until you hit your fourth land and hopefully stick wilderness reclamation. Then you can immediately untap and hold up Cryptic Command mana until you’re ready to go off.

The key is to survive long enough to take multiple turns with Nexus of Fate until you have enough mana to either mill out your opponent with Blue Sun’s Zenith, or beat them to death with some combination of snapcaster mages and creeping tar pits. To get to that point in the game, you need a critical mass of lands, plus at least one wilderness reclamation. To really go off, you probably want two wilderness reclamations out at the same time. The minimum number of mana you’ll need to start taking several additional turns is 13. With only 11 mana, you can cast teachings for Nexus, but you need the full 13 mana to flashback teachings and cast Nexus on the same turn. The other important piece to this deck is Blue Sun’s Zenith.

If they don’t have counter spells, you can cast Mystical Teachings on their end step for Blue Sun’s Zenith, untap, play your fifth land, and then on your end step you have access to 10 mana to reload your hand if necessary with Zenith, or continue to hold up counterspells and removal until you’re ready to go off.

The removal suite of 3 fatal push, 1 abrupt decay, and 1 assassin’s trophy means game one against the super aggressive decks is likely not favorable. However, the combination of blast zone, pulse of murasa, and snapcaster mage means the deck is capable of sweeping the board potentially 3 different times and gaining 12 life in the process.

Post board the deck has access to 14 silver bullets and the 4^th Snapcaster Mage. The combination of 3 Mystical Teachings and 4 Snapcaster Mage means the deck has 4 cards that represent the first copy of each silver bullet, plus 4 additional cards that represent version #2 of that silver bullet. That is some decent consistency. Death to the werewolves I guess.

Like most combo decks, this deck feels fragile. Thoughtseize into surgical extraction on either nexus, blue sun’s zenith, or wilderness reclamation feels like game over, but such is life for most Modern combo players.

On that note, I recently looked back through some recent online decklists because the article was getting stale and luckily found a more recent version of the deck by FTZZ. This was a 5-0 list from July 12, 2019:

Here, FTZZ has added another win condition in expansion // explosion and cut down to 2 Teachings. In doing so, they’ve changed up the mana base to support double red, and adjusted the removal suite accordingly, opting for 3 lighting bolt instead of fatal push. The mana base has also changed. Instead of two creeping tar pits and a Blast Zone, FTZZ has opted for Kher Keep, Lumbering Falls, and Kessig Wolf Run. Unclear whether Blast Zone was cut because it wasn’t pulling its weight or for color restrictions. They’ve also added a Minamo, School at Water’s Edge for what can only be style points. (Because untapping the newly added Ice-Fang Coatl doesn’t seem worth the cost of not running the 5th Snow Island when turning on deathtouch and eating a turn three Hogaak seems critical to the whole not dying plan.)

The sideboard has also changed to account for the color shift to red, and to add copies 2-4 of the Ice-Fang Coatl, which seems like it would be an all-star against the fair creature decks. And just when I thought I was done talking about this deck, I found a more recent version. This is a 5-0 list by DANADIN posted July 30, 2019.

DANADIN has kept the core of the original deck (4 Cryptic, 4 Remand, 4 Growth Spiral, 3 Mystical Teachings, 3 Wilderness Reclamation, 1 Blue Sun’s Zenith, and 1 Nexus of Fate) but has gone harder on the snow sub-theme to support the 4 maindeck Ice-Fang Coatls and Astrolabes. I don’t mind the Astrolabe’s over the Opts here, especially since having access to Scrying Sheets in a deck with 20 snow permanents seems like it would be fairly good while the deck is setting up to win.

The sideboard is similar but slightly less diversified than FTZZ. I personally like the second surgical rather than a 1-1 split of surgical/extirpate, just because sometimes you need all your mana to cast teachings. I would like to fit an assassin’s trophy into the sideboard, but without playing any games I have no idea what I would cut. (Though it’s probably weather the storm, since I have a feeling burn is unwinnable anyway.)

DECK GRADE: GENIUS

It may not be Tier 1, or even 2, but figuring out how to win games of Modern with 3 mystical teachings in your main deck along with the full suite of cryptic commands and remands is straight up badass.

Although it’s certainly not the fastest deck in Modern, it has inevitability against a lot of the field, and comes with a very customizable sideboard plan, which is always fun for people like me who like to tinker with their sideboards.

If I were to play this deck anytime in the near future I would start with DANADIN’s version because I think the mana is more consistent and the snow sub-theme and main-deck Coatls seems necessary in the current Hogaak era of Modern.

OPPONENTS WHO LOST TO THIS DECK: MAD!, man. Is there anything more frustrating and non-interactive then having all your spells remanded or cryptic commanded only to sit there and watch your opponent take 4 or 5 turns in a row off Nexus of Fate and then mill your face for 50 while you sit there waiting for the game to end? No, no there is not.

The Medium Guide to Big Magic Tournaments (part 1)

This is part one of a multiple article series. The first article will cover gameplay improvements and suggestions. Part two will cover some meta decisions about how to do well at tournaments. Part three will cover logistical suggestions.

Over the course of a few years I went from coming back into magic with no cards and on a 5+ year hiatus, to finishing top 16 in Grand Prix tournaments in every format. I haven’t been the best at spiking tournaments, but I have done an above average job of putting myself into a bubble slot to get there. I think my perspective is more interesting because I am not a full time magic player, and I do not necessarily travel or prepare as much as other more entrenched players. I go to about 6-8 mostly local GP’s a year, many local PTQ’s, play almost zero online magic. In short, I don’t have as much play time in any given format as many of my opponents, have a full-time job, don’t spend a ton of money on travel, and am therefore closer to the average mtg player than many higher-level pros. The purpose of this article will be to give several small tips and other edges that I think will help you improve your win percentages in larger tournaments and maybe help with some of the other less talked about aspects of magic. Many of these may be obvious to you, while others might not apply, but hopefully one or two nuggets of wisdom stick and help in your future endeavors.

A draw is a loss

I’m going to start with one of my biggest pet peeves, and a point that I think is often misunderstood by newer players. A DRAW IS A LOSS.

Don’t play to draw, especially in a large tournament, if you can help it. The first reason for this is literal, for the purposes of making day two and for pairings for the rest of the tournament, a draw functions as a loss. It doesn’t help for making day two, it doesn’t help for more pro points, and it only marginally helps with payouts at the end if you get that far. Until/if you get to the final round, then it might act as a “really good tiebreaker” on a loss at best. The second reason you don’t want a draw is because the draws tend to beget more draws. Once you are in the draw bracket at a GP, the only people you will be playing for the remainder of the tournament will also be people that took draws; these are players that probably will not set speed records for decision making and there is an above average chance that they are control players. The reason I am hyperbolic here is because I think the mental shift of considering a draw to be a loss will actively change how you play, usually for the better. By playing as if a draw is literally losing it forces you to change your perspective. You can also take all of this to mean that you should play faster. But I think it would be more precise to say “be mindful of time” and “be more efficient.” The clock system being used in paper magic is different from digital magic, and put constraints on both players very different from those online.

Sidenote: one can take advantage of knowledge of the draw bracket. For example, in legacy the draw bracket is usually dominated by bad miracles players, if you are playing something like post that is 70-30 against miracles, a draw might be an interesting heads up play. I say “bad” miracles players, because miracles is a deck with a lot of decisions and very few win conditions, and it takes a lot of practice to be able to make all of the necessary decisions quickly and the newer players to the deck tend to be glacial; this also applies to UW control in modern, and occasionally to win-conditionless standard decks. Basically, this is always kind of a joke scenario I discuss among friends, and I don’t recommend taking draws early just to try and beat inexperienced control pilots (which might backfire anyway, as they might play you into additional draws).

I have one unintentional draw in my magic career, and that is because of a spirits mirror where we both had worship in play; I was playing lightning fast trying to get to my 2 remaining outs to remove his enchantment (he was out of outs to remove mine). Honestly, it’s my fault for having the card in my sideboard in the first place. By the end of the season we had discovered that often Gideon Jura performed a similar role better (especially against other worship decks), and were using this in the same slot.

There are several reasons I do not draw very often:

I try to get to my seat early to get a clear view of the round timer; being able to see the timer is a good way to be able to steer the speed of the match. My rule of thumb, if your first game looks to be going over the 15 minute mark, try to see how you can speed things up and evaluate how both players’ pacing is going.
Be willing to concede against a control or prison deck game 1 if you are less than 5% to win; this is/was especially key against decks like lantern control in modern (or if both players are on a control mirror in standard), where they are so slow that if you let the games play out all the way the match could be a single game affair. Sometimes if you can see that the match might go very long, it can be best to try to move along so that you have a chance to get to a reasonable game 3 if you win game 2.

Often for decks like lantern the fault of “slowplay” isn’t on the part of the lantern player; rather, their opponent tends to take a longer time to make plays or refuse to concede because they don’t know they are beaten.
- I have seen a local bay area grinder unintentionally draw himself out of top 8 contention on at least 2 occasions because he a) tends to play slower decks, b) is unlucky enough to face opponents that are both slow decision makers and unwilling to concede when effectively beaten, and c) doesn’t call a judge soon enough. This leads us to the next point.

I am ready and willing to call a judge on my opponent for slow-play. You do not have to be rude about this. I usually give my own verbal warning first, something along the lines of “hey, it’s already been 15 minutes this game, let’s both try to play faster so we don’t draw.” After I talk to my opponent and they are still playing slowly I am happy to call a judge to watch our pace of play. This is not a dirty, shameful act, and your opponent does not have any reason to be salty because of this. It is in both players’ best interest to finish a match on time and judges are there to help for just that kind of thing.
My pace of play is slightly above average. This is largely because whenever there is downtime in a game, while someone is shuffling or my opponent is thinking, I am thinking about what my next move(s) will be, and what counter plays I might have to his possible moves. This is also useful for having meaningful bluffs; if you can jam your cards quickly without having to pause to think it makes you much more believable. I will adjust my sideboarding based on how much time is left and if I need to play to win quickly.
I tend to play proactive decks. Obviously this isn’t always correct (unless the format is modern: friends don’t let friends play control in modern) and it isn’t everyone’s style, but boy do I like having time between rounds in a large tournament. I will play a more controlling deck, but only if I have sufficient time to learn the deck thoroughly enough to not draw.

I’m not an over-shuffler. We’ve all sat across from the player who takes 5 minutes shuffling EVERY TIME. Then they spend just as much time shuffling your deck as they did their own. Don’t be that guy. This is a substantial waste of time for both parties no matter how much you feel like you’re controlling your destiny by over-shuffling (you aren’t). 7 riffles is enough to sufficiently randomize; a few more is fine, but please for the sake of us all, don’t overdo it.

You are going to make mistakes

Unfun facts. You are going to punt important matches, you are going to make bad deck choices, you might mis-register your deck, be late for a round, or draw yourself into 9^th (I just did this at a recent CFB legacy 3k), or misread an opponent and get beaten on a bluff. It is all your fault and you might feel bad about it.

I have found that the best thing for me is to acknowledge the mistakes, find the parts that you did not do wrong, and then kindly and gently (not forcefully, if that makes sense) shelve it and put it behind you as best you can. You brain will try to focus on the bad more than the good, and the only thing you can do is try to acknowledge it and move along. Similarly, you must trust the man on the ground. Looking back at video footage with future knowledge might make it easy to be down on yourself, but it is important to realize what you knew at the time. I unnecessarily gave Jeremy Dezani a 3 outer to beat me in game 3 of a legacy GP win-and-in. It bothered me immensely for a day or two, but eventually I had to calmly recognize that I made a mistake, and that is ok. This is doubly true mid-tournament, where it is very easy to go on tilt and cause additional losses. I think this is also important for team events. You’ve chosen your teammates beforehand, they will make mistakes and that is ok, just try to help each other out as best you can. My friends and I have a saying we will yell at each other when someone tilts mid-tournament: “new round new tournament!” This doesn’t really make sense, but it is a reminder that each round is an independent entity, and there is no reason to go in with baggage from previous rounds.

Don’t always do the same thing

I provide a lot of heuristics, as do various other authors, for what one should do in specific situations.

These are great as general rules, but there are always times to improvise. I’ve been told by a few different storm opponents that I am difficult to play against; largely because when they present a difficult situation I will react differently or at least think it through each time. Many players, especially playing against a complicated combo deck like storm, will always do X. For example, some people will always counter the dark ritual, while others refuse to. Your opponent can take advantage of this, especially if they have played against you multiple times. If you always counter the ritual they can try to bait your counterspells with rituals. If you never counter they know they can just go off with ritual into duress. When you are playing a match you are building a narrative with your opponent. Maybe they have an overrun effect in sealed that they showed you the first game, and now they know you have to respect that overrun for the rest of the match. Similarly, I will often attack my 2/2 into their 0/3 early in a game/match. They either call my “bluff” and block, in which case I might be able to make the same play later and get them with a combat trick on a more important creature, or they give me free damage. Whatever way you do it, always keep in mind you are giving and receiving information from your opponent about what level you are on, how willing you are to bluff, and how you are most likely to respond to any given situation.

It is usually correct to jam, especially in limited

It is very common for midlevel players (grinders, I consider myself to fit this description) to want to play around everything. Maybe you are playing against standard control and want to play around turn two syncopate, or you don’t want to lose to overcome in sealed from the green deck. I think it is an important skill in magic to be able to realize what could happen that would make things go wrong. Maybe they have force of will, maybe you can get blown out by a combat trick, maybe they kill you when you let them untap in modern. However, knowing something can go wrong is not the same as acting like they always have it. I usually have a rough idea of what they might be able to do to stop me and what the percentages are based on card % and how they’ve been acting in the game. It is often correct, knowing the risks, to just make the proactive play.

In sealed if I know that my all out attack to put them dead in two turns loses to a threaten effect, I will jam because a) they have to put threaten in their deck, and b) they might have wrath of god or something much worse waiting to get you dead if you give them extra time. I tend to play magic like Doyle Brunson plays poker: loose-aggressive. It is usually worth it to push your advantage rather than give them time to catch up. This is important for control players as well. Sometimes snapcaster mage’s job is to be ambush viper so that you can actually end the game against a combo opponent. This also depends on the level of your opponent. If they are a good player, they might be enticing you with a position of weakness instead of actively being weak, trying to get you to over commit into a sweeper. Basically, what I am trying to say is that most players, especially at the grand prix level, are on level 1. They probably are not bluffing, their obvious tells are actually tells, and they probably don’t have it. Of course, this is susceptible to how you read your opponent. I once lost a match against Dan Ward because I made an aggressive attack into him game one, thinking there’s no way he is main-decking threaten because that card is bad. Turns out he was and I was immediately punished.

This is a very loose heuristic, and one that gets me in trouble if followed without thinking. My win percentage for modern horizons has been significantly lower than other limited sets because I tend to play more aggressively. The problem is that modern horizons has many more powerful cards than most sets, and there are more ways to be punished for loose play. There are also many more modal cards that might otherwise be so-so such as stirring address. Basically what I am trying to say is don’t be too meek, each of use will lose games to being too loose or too defensive, but I would rather be on the too loose side, at least then I have time to get lunch. I play like an ape and get rewarded, and do best with decks that reward this behavior (Legacy show and tell). This isn’t for everyone. At a minimum however I think it is a useful skill to know all the ways that a thing could go wrong, know exactly what decision you are making, and then make the loose/aggressive decision anyway. Inaction is just as dangerous as pushing, and giving your opponent extra time is always a risk.

Thus ends this particular week’s ramblings. Tune in soon for part two of this article, detailing higher level meta decisions and other tournament prep notes.

It’s Karn’s World. We’re Just Living In It.

Image result for karn, the great creator

On April 9th, Karn, the Great Creator was spoiled. When I first saw this card, I was sure it would see Vintage play. All of its abilities are incredibly powerful. Null Rod is already a pillar of Vintage, to the point where decks entirely consisting of artifacts with activated abilities will have a playset in the sideboard. Karn, Silver Golem has seen Vintage play in past eras because of its ability to destroy moxen, so the +1 ability is relevant, although less so because the static ability already turns off moxen. The -2 is obviously the reason to play this card though.

My first shell was in a traditional Smokestack deck, using Karn to find situational lock pieces out of the sideboard, and it did not prove to be very successful. Karn was difficult to cast for a few reasons. The first being that Mishra’s Workshop, the most powerful unrestricted card in Vintage, could not cast him. The second being that I was often locking myself out of getting close to casting him because of my Sphere of Resistance effects. I put down the idea at first, and let people much smarter than me build some lists.

In this article I’ll be covering how to evaluate Vintage decklists before evaluating said lists, and then talking about changes I made to the deck and the future of both Karn Shops and Vintage.

Evaluating Vintage Decklists
Vintage is a complicated and intimidating format to evaluate. Because of the nature of the restricted list, lists are made up of a lot of 1 ofs and can feel impossible to parse.

How I like to look at and build Vintage decklists, is in terms of ratios. So rather than being 1 Black Lotus, 1 Mox Pearl, 1 Mox Sapphire, 1 Mox Jet, 1 Mox Ruby, 1 Mox Emerald, 1 Mana Crypt, 1 Sol Ring, 1 Mana Vault etc. it is 9 pieces of fast mana. Rather than being 4 Wasteland, 1 Strip Mine. it is 5 land destruction lands. The same can be done with removal, counter spells, threats, tutors, engine cards, etc.

Another important thing to consider with Vintage decklists, is the nature of the format. There are certain “pillars” of the Vintage format, and is important to keep these in mind. The current pillars of the format are greatly contested, but traditionally they were considered to be Dark Ritual, Null Rod, Mana Drain, Bazaar of Baghdad, and Mishra’s Workshop. The format has changed and sped up a lot since then, and I consider the current pillars of the format to be Mox Opal, Mental Misstep, Bazaar of Baghdad, and Mishra’s Workshop. In order to compete in this format, you almost certainly need to casting one of these cards. Keeping that in mind can explain odd choices of cards. For example, some lists play Sorcerous Spyglass over Pithing Needle because it can not be countered by Mental Misstep.

The premier Vintage decks within these pillars over the last few years in Vintage have been Paradoxical Outcome combo, “Xerox” which is usually URx Control or BUG Control, Dredge, Survival of the Fittest, and Workshops, either Arcbound Ravager Shops or Karn Shops.

The Evolution of Karn Shops

In the first tournament in which Karn was legal on Magic: the Gathering Online (MTGO), three interesting shells appeared.

This list from Andy “Brassman” Probasco Top 8d this Challenge. He used Karn TGC to fuel the Painter’s Servant/Grindstone Combo as well as finding Mycosynth Lattice out of the sideboard. Metalworker tied this all together, and allowed you to cast Karn and make other big mana combo plays.

Pilot TheYostWithTheMost took a Stacks focused prison build of the deck to a 22nd place finish. Grim Monolith is an interesting addition to the deck, that can enable Karn off of Mishra’s Workshop. In this build, Karn was used as a prison piece that could also find other lock pieces out of the sideboard.

The final list, from innovative deckbuilder Saturn played four total Mycosynth Lattices in the 75 and focused on casting powerful planeswalkers with Jhoria’s Familiar to reduce their costs.

All three of these lists were interesting and provided several options to make Karn actually castable in a Workshops shell.

In the following Vintage Challenge, only one Karn TGC deck appeared, and it was in the shell of a previously fringe deck in Eldrazi. The Eldrazi threat package is very powerful, but the deck had always struggled with a few things compared to Workshops. The first being that without Mishra’s Workshop, you can struggle to break the symmetry of the Sphere of Resistance effects. Your lands just do not tap for as much mana, and the deck is slower out of the gates and can struggle with mana problems. The other major flaw of these decks is they struggle heavily against Workshops because their threats do not line up well against the traditional Affinity suite of Ravager Shops. Null Rod was often seen as a solution to this problem, but it made the mana in Eldrazi even worse because it turned off their own mana rocks.
Karn, the Great Creator is able to act as a one sided Null Rod, improving the Shops matchup, and all of the lands in the deck are able to cast Karn, so the downside of not playing Mishra’s Workshop is mitigated. You can see this list takes advantage of Grim Monolith to cast powerful spells early, which will be a key factor in future lists.

Here we have the winning list from that Challenge in the hands of Vintage legend Ryan Eberhart (Diophan) which I understand was created by his teammate Matt Murray.

The next iteration on Karn Shops was the addition of Grim Monolith and Voltaic Key as a mana engine to the deck. This allowed the deck to have more consistently broken hands, as the Grim Monoliths often acted like Lotus Petals, and when you draw the two cards in conjunction, you can powerful things turn after turn. The other addition to the deck was Time Vault in the sideboard. This allowed Karn, the Great Creator to wish for either half of the Time Vault – Voltaic Key combo. This deck was able to consistently cast a powerful 4 drop threat in the first few turns of the game, while also still abusing the most powerful cards in the Workshops deck.

Then the exact same 75 won the Challenge the next week in the hands of Wordy333, with the following challenge being taken down again by Karn, the Great Creator in the hands of Logarythme with KarnDrazi, and then again in the hands of Ecobaronen with a further iteration of Karn Shops.

Changes To The Deck

After Karn, the Great Creator won 5 consecutive Vintage Challenges, I took notice. I was dead set on playing a Tendrils of Agony deck for SCGCon, but the power level of Karn TGC was clearly higher than any other strategy in Vintage.

In my initial runs with the deck, a few things stood out to me. I felt the land count was a little low. Despite all the artifact mana acceleration, the deck is trying to cast a lot of expensive spells. I decided two Mox Opal was not necessary, and cut one for a City of Traitors. There is a chance the deck might want to be playing four City of Traitors to enable more broken starts, but it is still a big mana deck that wants to hit all of its land drops.

I also was not in love with the Inventor’s Fair package. Playing with the deck quickly showed me this deck is not trying to do slow and durdely things. This is a combo deck. I also felt the risk of drawing multiple Legendary lands in a deck trying to cast very expensive spells was too high. I cut two of the Inventor’s Fairs for 1 Buried Ruin and 1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth.

I had been impressed with Buried Ruin when I played Krark-Clan Ironworks in Modern, and I felt it could be a good mana sink for the deck. The idea of Urborg was so the Mishra’s Workshops could tap to cast non-artifact spells or activate the abilities of Walking Ballista, Grim Monolith, or Voltaic Key. Urborg also allows you to tap Ancient Tomb for mana at a low life total.

I was struggling against the control decks in the format, as well as Paradoxical Outcome. Mirrors also felt like Karn TGC was the only card that mattered. With the realization that Karn Shops was a combo deck, I also wanted a way to further protect my combo. Karn Scion of Urza was underperforming. The first copy is nice to have, but it is situational and I rarely want to draw two. I removed one, and the Inventor’s Fair tutor targets of Crucible of Worlds and Ensnaring Bridge were replaced with three Thought-Knot Seer. This card is a powerful threat against control, while allowing you to strip Storm of their Hurkyl’s Recall or the mirror of their Karns. It also ignores artifact based hate, can pressure opposing planeswalkers, and protect your own planeswalkers. The card is also fairly easy to cast in a deck designed around casting an early Karn TGC.
Here is the list I settled on and took to a third place finish in the Vintage Challenge, and a top four place in the Team Trios Eternal tournament at SCGCon.

Core Set 2020 Updates

Core Set 2020 brought two new additions to Karn Shops, Mystic Forge and Manifold Key. Mystic Forge is basically an artifact based Future Sight. This gave Karn Shops the critical mass of cards to essentially be a pure combo deck. Karn, Scion of Urza wasn’t quite fast enough to be a stand alone engine, and Thought-Knot Seer made the mana awkward. Manifold Key is powerful as essentially a strict upgrade to Voltaic Key, that also allows you to play more than four Voltaic Key in the 75.There are currently two builds of Karn Shops. Players are split on Sphere of Resistance, which can be awkward with Mystic Forge.
This first list from aooaaooa on MTGO is essentially a pure combo build, using Defense Grid to protect the combo.

Here JdPhoenix further iterated upon the deck, and added the Spheres back in. Notably, this deck also includes Sensei’s Divining Top which is very powerful with Voltaic Key and Mystic Forge.

The Future of Karn Shops and Vintage

Since its inception, Karn, the Great Creator has been a powerhouse in Vintage. It is a one card combo that also acts as an asymmetrical lock piece shutting down the powerful restricted artifacts in Vintage and acting as a toolbox to get you out of an situation. With the addition of Mystic Forge, the deck has slanted more towards combo and less towards prison. Builds featuring playsets of both Foundry Inspector and Sensei’s Divining Top to create a combo with Mystic Forge have been popping up, and look like they may be the future of Karn decks.

Vintage has long had a stigma of being a turn 1 format. This has not been true for many years, as the average turn of Vintage tended to be longer than both Modern and Legacy in my experience. Karn has changed this. The format has essentially been reduced to a three deck format with Karn, Dredge, and BUG decks rising to the top and vying for dominance. A lot of matches last only a few minutes, and come down to comparing opening hands. I generally dislike restrictions, but it may be needed in the future. That is a discussion for a different article though!

Thanks for joining me to talk about Magic’s oldest and greatest format, and the impact of Karn, the Great Creator has had on it!

The medium guide to metagames

Every time something new happens in magic, the community goes through a predictable cycle finding out what the best decks are, and content creators spend a great deal of time shouting from the rooftops what the best decks, how you should build them, and how you should sideboard with them. I intend to similarly yell advice at you in future articles. First, however, let’s break down what the cycle is, and find some ways to take advantage of this cycle.

I am reminded of one of the best magic articles of all time, which still gives an excellent description of how magic players act in groups. If you haven’t given “information cascades in magic” a read, I highly recommend doing so. If you don’t know what “ghost dad” is, don’t worry about it, just insert the name of a bad deck that people love to play and will defend to the death (think of the rock or merfolk in modern). We have significantly more information about deck percentages, meta percentages, and conversion rates, but much of the information regarding how players tend to follow blindly is still very evident in tournament magic.

Ok, so we’ve got this cool new format due to cards either entering or leaving a format. Usually it’s because a new set just came into standard (War most recently), but maybe it’s because a set just came into modern (horizons), or maybe they just implemented the London mulligan rule AND IT’S RAINING GRISELBRANDS! BAN THE DREDGE MECHANIC!

Take a deep breath. Things are probably going to be fine. Here’s a simple timeline of any given first month of standard:

Week 1: Many show up with THE DECK that everyone is afraid of (nexus of fate, rw angels, bant flash, esper control), it generally does not go well for them. The good aggro decks (mono red/white) probably win the first tournament of the cycle or are heavily represented. Something like 10 different decks are represented in the top 16; 8/10 will never be spoken of again.
Week 2: Now that we know aggro is good and brews are bad, fewer people show up with aggro and the true midrange deck of the format emerges (gb/bug midrange). Aggro dies to a wave of life gain and sweepers.
Week 3: The midrange arms race begins. Decks become tuned and start cutting obviously bad cards. Opponents are now set to grind mode (esper midrange, gw tokens). By the end of the week an unexpected hero emerges to dumpster midrange (mono blue); this hero probably has a bad time against aggro.
Week 4: The midrange arms race has reached its peak. Ramp decks come out of the woodwork (gates, ug ramp) to tron themselves all over midrange decks. Control might be part of this arms race, depending on how they match up against hate cards.
Week 5-bored: If the format is healthy, the balance of aggro->midrange->midranger->combo->control->aggro will cycle indefinitely, probably with no more than 3-4 decks in tier 1. If the format is bad, everyone is playing rb vehicles because the midrange decks are killing too fast to be taken advantage of by bigger decks. The best deck is probably a midrange deck with either a transformative/strong sideboard, a combo finish, or is more aggressive than it has any right to be while still grinding.

If your format of choice is modern, double the amount of time and replace the word “midrange” with “combo.” If your format of choice is Legacy, quadruple the amount of time and remember that “midrange” in this context means “fair blue deck.” If your format of choice is Vintage, octuple the time, replace your 4 non-restricted list flex slots with the cool new planeswalker(s)/draw engine, rename your deck if your draw engine changed or was restricted, and call it a day.

Based on the assumptions from our week by week breakdown, we can draw a few conclusions. This all assumes that the goal is to maximize win rate; an obvious assumption, but not always a true one. This also assumes one can switch decks with some regularity; this is true even less often, but we can address that a little later.

Aggro is almost always best in week one when people are trying to brew; this is repeated ad nauseum and hardly worth going into. Basically just be wary of the dangers of doing cool things during week one when everyone knows to burn you out. There’s also an argument for bringing the thing that beats aggro week one, especially if there is a midrange deck well-tuned for doing this from last season (g/b midrange); this assumes that something actually beats aggro, which is not always the case (mono blue of pre-war).

Week two is when you’re likely to play against the remnants of aggro and the up and coming midrange deck; now is probably the time to be going over the top. Week two is also when the rules of engagement start to become defined; this season it’s the hunt for the best planeswalker deck, last season it was a race to see who could draw the most cards, preferably with hydroid krasis, before that it basically a matter of finding the best deck that could contain aggro (golgari, thanks to find // finality).

Week three is deep into arms race territory; now is probably the time to zag and try to do something that abuses midrange decks: combos, ramping, mono blue, etc. Previously this was around the time when the pro tour took place. This is no longer necessarily the case, so it is harder to find a single event to answer the simple question: what am best deck?

By the time week 4 hits there’s usually a pretty good idea of what the “best deck” is, if it exists. The best deck often checks more than one of the archetype boxes. If it’s the best aggro deck and the best midrange deck, it’s probably busted (rb vehicles); if it’s the best midrange deck and the best combo deck (4c command the dreadhorde?), probably not a bad choice. This standard season there are an unreasonable number of decks that have an excellent fair plan backed up by a combo finish. Command the Dreadhorde, bolas’s citadel, and bontu all allow a player to win in a position where they are significantly behind on board. This is somewhat unique to just-before-rotation cycles and older formats, usually the deck that best interacts while still enacting its own consistent game-plan is the best deck (think phoenix decks in modern).

I’ve pretty much laid out how level 0 and 1 work out for the first month of a cycle. The level 0 solution to metagames is: play aggro, then play midrange, then tune midrange to be midrange-ier (in many ways control is the midrange-iest midrange of all), then keep tuning midrange to actually win once we’ve found the midrange-iest deck. Level 0 is the safest bet and will probably give you the most consistent good-but-not-winning-the-tournament results. The level 1 solution is one step faster than level 0; play midrange, then make it durdlier, then find a combo or trump, then probably go to aggro or combo to finish out the season and punish durdlers; in short, try to be one step ahead of the level 0 players. Level 1 is mostly likely to win or very quickly lose you the tournament; i.e. playing to the winner’s meta. Level 1, if you can manage it, is where you’re supposed to be if the goal is to spike a tournament; I usually end up somewhere in level 0 and as a result I have a ton of top 16s. Just don’t be on level 2; don’t play ramp/durdly midrange versus a sea of aggro, and don’t play aggro into slightly more interactive aggro decks.

If you don’t have the ability or desire to repeatedly swap decks, that’s fine, we can use these results to select 1 or 2 decks in a cycle that let you keep playing magic without continuously changing things. In general, if you can only get one deck, and the goal is to minimize win-rate, you should probably pick up an aggro deck. Aggro decks are cheaper, good week 1 and week 4+ and usually aren’t too awful in the bad weeks, as you can always catch a stumbling opponent.

If you have access to multiple decks, but not all the decks, I would still recommend having an aggro deck for the start of any given season, followed by the most obvious midrange deck with a good endgame and tools to break up combo (duress, spell pierce) and aggro (shock, cry of the carnarium). For the last 6+ months or so this would mean carrying around mono white or red, coupled with gb/bug midrange or drakes. No matter the meta, one of these two decks will be close to correct, and they persist across different metagames with minimal changes; naturally the gb midrange deck will run you up a pretty penny, especially if you had to buy Hydroid Krasis at the wrong time, but it is a reasonable long term investment given how long it has been a player in the format.

Anyway, after all that rambling there should probably be a conclusion. Metagame cycles are predictable and magic players follow information cascades in a repeatable fashion. Doing what everyone else is doing will give good but not great results but takes significantly less effort; being one step ahead of the cycle is ideal, but only comes with a great deal of testing work and is very punishing if misjudged. This applies to all magic formats (including limited), but that will take further discussion in the future.
Good luck out there!