I had been putting off writing another pioneer article. Every week since Theros: Beyond Death came out I’d assumed that THIS week, they’d ban some Theros cards. Yet, it keeps not happening, now with assurances that it won’t happen for awhile. Not entirely unreasonable. There’s a pro tour coming (yes I know they call it something else now, can’t for the life of me remember what they’re called though), and changing things up too much right before one isn’t always a good idea. Mr. Duke also makes a good point that the metagame has had the ability to continually evolve. A 49% winrate for inverter is very surprising, but is perhaps representative of how hateful the format has become. I’m not sure Gideon of the Trials is quite a playable card, but it certainly can be when your opponent’s combo kills them if they don’t get him off the table.
With my last report, I basically got everything wrong. I was about 3 days too early to see mono white devotion, inverter, or the breach deck pop up as viable. It was written in a happier time, when llanowar elf seemed the most busted card in the format, and glorybringer seemed like the best thing you could be doing. I think that various mono colored aggro strategies, particularly those that best use mutavault, would be a great place to be if Theros hadn’t printed 3 distinct busted combos into the format. But here we are, for another month and half at least. With that, I might as well stop whining and go over our current pioneer environment, complete with diagram.
You might notice something a bit odd about the diagram above. Mostly that 3 of the 5 slots are occupied by combo pieces, and the other two are occupied by somewhat irrelevant cards. Let’s go over the boogeymen of the format as a starting point.
There’s a very good reason why one can reasonably refer to the current meta as combo winter. The combos are so good they branch into and take over entire archetypes. The inverter of truth deck isn’t just a good combo deck, it’s also a good control deck; arguably a better control deck than the control decks previously featuring supreme verdict. Similarly the Heliod deck is a better midrange deck than the midrange decks (*cough* delirium *cough*), with almost all of its threats representing a 2-for-1. Even the breach deck often functions as a big mana deck a large portion of the time. Plenty of decks can’t beat an ugin out of the board thanks to granted. Each of these is a monster, comprising multiple archetypes and quickly turning pioneer into a brutal modern-like format. There is hope however, as some jank still remains.
Jim Davis’ white based aura deck has really grown up from its humble origins. I played this deck early on in pioneer-as-a-format, and it definitely felt very powerful but also very disruptable if the opponent was sufficiently prepared. The addition of more and better one drops, better protection spells, and more card draw / 2-for-1s makes this much more of a powerhouse. This deck has a very linear game-plan, but also has the ability to grind when the game goes long. Also it’s very inexpensive, which tends to bolster popularity. Variations on this and heroic are what I plan to be playing locally for the next few weeks. I definitely have an affinity for heavily linear creature based decks.
I once top 64’d a modern event with spirits, and it was my primary modern deck for a long time. The deck was fun, but I realized afterwards that I was definitely making things harder for myself than I needed to in a brutal modern format. Fortunately pioneer isn’t yet brutal enough that beating down with creatures is too slow of a plan. Walking disruption in the form of mausoleum wanderer and spell queller is enough to keep combo opponents on the back foot while you close the door. Nebelgast Herald also does a pretty good job of keeping your aggro opponents off balance long enough to finish them off in the air. Definitely a solid choice, but likely to get worse if we end up back in the mono colored aggro mutavault paradise we previously experienced.
This deck is slowly creeping into the tier one of the format, suggesting that elvish mystic may still be one of the most busted things you can do in pioneer. Wishing planeswalkers with 15 different things to find in the board is also a pretty good way to steal some game ones you might not otherwise be able to. Not to mention all the sideboarding you don’t have to do! When all the decks are linear, having silver bullets for all of them is a pretty reasonable strategy, especially when stapled to an aggressive green deck.
Pioneer is growing up. The games are getting increasingly fast and brutal, and the advantage goes to those decks that have a linear plan and execute on it. Even after combo winter, I believe this will still be the case. Sorry sultai delirium, you’re the jund of this format; you’ll get played by tons of people, and maybe even do well sometimes, but you’re almost certainly never going to be the right deck to play. Even Niv to light is linear enough in its plan (draw all the cards and make a big creature at the same time) that it isn’t completely unreasonable.
If you’re looking for a deck to play, I’d recommend one mentioned in this article; other viable choices involve mono black aggro and maybe izzet ensoul once inverter goes away. Of course, there’s more risk involved in playing one of the boogeymen, as pieces are likely to be banned sooner rather than later (especially if you’re playing dig through time).
Bannings-wise, I’d be willing to bet that bannings occur after the pro tour in April. I expect them to ban a card out of inverter, and possibly something out of one of the other combo decks. Dig through time probably also isn’t safe. After the PT, depending on how hard they go on mono white devotion and breach, I’m willing to bet that things more or less revert to the state I predicted in my previous article (plus or minus a few decks like orzhov auras that have developed more recently). Play something linear, know your match-ups. We’re getting ever closer to modern, and it’ll be a bumpy ride.